September 2025 Financial Focus
September Kickoff
The Market Environment and our Adaptations
Let’s talk about the market environment and what our expectations as investors should be. We’re firm
believers that the heads and tails of the market—the upside and downside—are becoming more common. That’s not necessarily a negative. Remember, the right tail (or head) is a good thing. It’s about being ready for whichever side the coin lands.
Here’s what history has told us about the S&P 500. We can’t base future expectations solely on the past, but we can learn from it. Source: Aptus, Data as of 9/25/2025
| Type of Decline Avg. | Frequency | Avg. Length | Last Occurrence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% Or More | 3x Per Year | 39 Days | April 2025 |
| 10% Or More | Every 16 Months | 128 Days | April 2025 |
| 15% Or More | Every 3x Years | 230 Days | April 2025 |
| 20% Or More | Every 5.5 Years | 330 Days | April 2025 |
History tells us that 20% or greater pullbacks happen about every 5.5 years. Since 2020, we’ve
experienced three of them: Feb–Mar 2020: -33.79% , Jan–Oct 2022: -24.02%, Feb–Apr 2025: -21.35%.
That’s not a coincidence. The pace of change is accelerating. Technology, and information, and data cycles are moving faster than ever. AI, might just be the acronym of the year. It’s transforming how markets behave, how companies operate, and how we invest.
Our strategy at MVFP? Structure portfolios that aren’t built for “average” conditions, but for real ones. That means more equities, fewer traditional bonds, and selective use of alternatives. We aim to stay risk- neutral while maximizing potential in both down markets (left tail) and strong rallies (right tail). Trying to time those moves is a losing game. Building for them... that’s our edge.
In practice, this means managing a portfolio that is overweight in stocks compared to bonds. In our
experience, holding more equities, while managing risk, can lead to portfolios that are not only less
volatile but recover more quickly and outperform traditional portfolio philosophies.
How are MVFP’s portfolios evolving, currently? We believe the U.S. is going to outperform its international
counterparts, so we’re increasing exposure to domestic equities by a few percentage points. U.S.
companies beat earnings by an average of 80% last quarter, compared to roughly 50% for international
firms.
We’re also embracing AI and the sectors that must grow to support it: energy and infrastructure. With large capital expenditures coming from major firms, we’re targeting a small portion of the portfolio toward energy infrastructure and AI-focused investments. As always, these are small tweaks—not sweeping changes. The goal is to optimize the short term without ever losing sight of the long-term plan. If you have questions about how this may impact your specific portfolio, please reach out!
“We Invest In The World We Have,
Not The World We Want"
Fed Jargon
As noted in last month’s newsletter, the Federal
Reserve’s September meeting carried weight and it
delivered. After months of speculation, the Fed voted
to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points. The decision was the first reduction of the year.
Why the cut? The labor market has softened slightly,
with unemployment edging up from 4.0% to around
4.3%. That’s still below historical averages, but
coupled with lagging economic data, it gave the Fed
just enough justification to act. Still, not everyone
agreed. One member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented, pushing for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while others showed hesitation, preferring to wait for more clarity.
Here’s where it gets interesting. With Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair set to expire in May 2026, positioning inside the Fed may be about more than just policy. President Trump, currently in office, will have the authority to nominate the next Chair. That adds a political layer to the economic conversation. A more dovish (favors lower interest rates) public stance could be seen as a strategic move by some Fed members hoping to align with Trump’s preferences and potentially secure the top job.
Two more cuts are currently priced in for 2025 and that feels ambitious. Another two are priced in for 2026, but all of this remains data dependent. Only time and further economic clarity will give us a more accurate picture of what’s truly ahead.
Inflation, for now, is staying steady at around 3 percent, roughly one percent above the Fed’s stated target. This will continue to be watched closely. The Fed still faces the challenge of balancing cooling prices with full employment. It’s a delicate job, and one they are clearly approaching with caution.
Our Thoughts? The Fed has been engaged in restrictive economic policy since the rate hikes of 2022. This policy has contributed to slowing the growth of the U.S. economy. Working to get to a more friendly interest rate policy seems right. A modest cut, and a plan to get there over time is healthy.
Closing Remarks
We spend a lot of time talking about markets, portfolios, and financial plans, but we’d be remiss not to acknowledge something deeper: the health of our communities and the tone of our society.
While the United States and businesses continue to lead globally, it’s clear that our social strength isn’t keeping pace. From the recent tragic events, senseless violence, the loss of public figures, division over perspectives remind us that compassion, unity, and basic decency are not givens. We were also reminded that how we treat one another matters.
Leadership begins at the individual level. Whether on the global stage or in our own neighborhoods, the
opportunity to lead with empathy is always available.
Let’s choose to show up with kindness, and seek understanding over division. America’s greatest strength has always come from its people. We are different, determined, and at our best, united. Thank you for being part of the MVFP family.
Partnering with you on your financial journey.
Pertinent Information
SEI has transitioned client access to the new Investor Portal Admin A new SEI Mobile App is now available for easier access on the go If you need help setting up your online access, please contact our office
United Advisor Group, LLC, d/b/a Miami Valley Financial Partners, is a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. MVFP, Form ADV Part 2A & CRS can be obtained by visiting: https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed is to be construed as solicitation to buy or sell a security of personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Securities offered through Silver Oak Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through United Advisors Group. Silver Oak Securities and United Advisor Group are not affiliated. Important letters, email, or fax messages should be confirmed by calling 937-428-9204. This email service may not be monitored every day, or after normal business hours.
