June 2025 Financial Focus
Data, Decisions, and the Long View
Q1 and Q2, What the Data is Telling Us
As we close in on the halfway mark of 2025, markets seem to have found their footing. Q1 set the tone for a rocky year. Whispers of a U.S. recession grew louder, but as Q2 rolled in, there seemed to be light at the end of the tunnel. Not only did markets recover, but they also began showing signs of trading on fundamentals again, not just fear-driven headlines.
Take the Iran–Israel conflict. Historically, news like that might have triggered a broad sell-off. This time? The market barely blinked. Investors shrugged off the noise and focused instead on the underlying data, a strong signal that sentiment is shifting back toward rationality.
So,
what are the fundamentals telling us? At the end of Q1, GDP growth was reported at -0.1%, technically recessionary. However, the number is misleading.
A big driver? Imports. With new tariffs looming, companies frontloaded orders, building inventories and dragging down the GDP calculation.
Why does that matter?
Because GDP is calculated using a formula that subtracts imports from the total. That last part is key. When imports rise, they reduce the GDP number, even if economic activity remains strong. So, when companies rushed to bring in goods ahead of tariff deadlines, the economy appeared weaker on paper than it actually was. That’s why understanding the “why” behind the data matters just as much as the headline itself. Now, in Q2, imports have slowed, and GDP is projected at +3.8%. Neither quarter tells the full story on its own. Q1 wasn’t a contracting U.S. economy. Q2 isn’t some astronomical boom. Together, they point to a stable economy averaging around 2% growth; right where we want to be!
Inflation has also stayed in check. While tariffs are inflationary in theory, in practice, their impact has been muted so far. The U.S. economy is massive and complex-too complex for one policy shift to break the system. It’s a reminder that real data beats speculation every time.
At a more granular level, 78% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates in Q1, with 14% year-over-year growth, nearly double the 8% that was expected. That strength was driven by solid revenues and steady capital spending, especially in tech. The “Magnificent 7” stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and friends) now make up more than 31% of the S&P 500. That kind of concentration deserves a watchful eye, but it’s also been a driving force behind much of the recovery. Yes, Q2 earnings projections are being revised slightly downward, largely due to tariff uncertainty, but even with those adjustments, 2025 earnings are expected to grow nearly 10% over last year. If that holds, it would fall squarely in line with long-term averages; hardly the stuff of recessions.
All of this leads us to a simple conclusion: the volatility we saw early in the year may have been more
about nerves than numbers. The fundamentals? They’re telling a steadier, more optimistic story. As long-
term investors, that’s exactly what we need to hear!
“It is never beneficial to
focus on short-term outcomes when investing for the long run"
Social Security
In its simplest form, Social Security is the retirement
paycheck you earn over decades of work. You pay in through payroll taxes, and eventually, when the time
comes, Uncle Sam starts sending some of it back to
you.
Now, we’ll put aside the long-term funding debate.
Yes, there are issues, but for anyone in their early 30s
or younger, it’s worth acknowledging that Social
Security may not be a guarantee in the future. That
said, for those approaching retirement, it’s still a
central piece of the puzzle, and deciding when to take
it can make a meaningful difference.
You can start collecting benefits as early as age 62, but that comes with a catch. Your monthly check will be permanently reduced. Wait until your Full Retirement Age (FRA), currently 67 for most people, and you’ll get the full benefit. Hold off until age 70, and your check increases by about 8 percent for every year you delay past FRA
So which option is best? It depends on your goals, health, income needs, and work plans. If you start before FRA and earn more than $22,320, you’ll lose one dollar in benefits for every two dollars earned. In the year you reach FRA, that limit rises to $59,520, and the penalty drops to one dollar for every three dollars over the limit. After FRA, there’s no income penalty at all. You can earn as much as you want.
Here’s where break-even points come in. If you take Social Security at 62 instead of 67, the break-even age
is around 79, meaning if you live beyond that, delaying would have paid off. Waiting from 67 to 70 pushes the
break-even to about age 83. These benchmarks help guide the math, but personal health, longevity expectations, and lifestyle needs should drive the final decision.
Closing Remarks
As we move into the heart of summer, it's a good time to remember that financial planning, like the
seasons, works best with a little rhythm and patience. The first half of the year gave us plenty of movement, but the fundamentals remain strong, and so does your plan.
Looking ahead, the revised tax bill seems to be trending toward cuts aimed at growth, and a rate cut from the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly likely. Both would be welcome news for the markets and for long-term investors like you.
Whether you’re traveling, grilling, or simply enjoying a slower pace, we hope this season brings moments of rest and celebration.
From all of us at MVFP, have a safe and joyful Fourth of July. Here's to freedom, fresh perspective, and the second half of 2025. Cheers.
Partnering with you on your financial journey.
Pertinent Information
SEI has transitioned client access to the new Investor Portal Admin A new SEI Mobile App is now available for easier access on the go If you need help setting up your online access, please contact our office
United Advisor Group, LLC, d/b/a Miami Valley Financial Partners, is a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. MVFP, Form ADV Part 2A & CRS can be obtained by visiting: https://adviserinfo.sec.gov and search for our firm name. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed is to be construed as solicitation to buy or sell a security of personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Securities offered through Silver Oak Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through United Advisors Group. Silver Oak Securities and United Advisor Group are not affiliated. Important letters, email, or fax messages should be confirmed by calling 937-428-9204. This email service may not be monitored every day, or after normal business hours.
