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October 2025 Financial Focus

Sat, 01 Nov 2025 21:59:51 GMT

October: A not so Spooky Market

Halloween marks the start of the holiday season, and we hope everyone gets to enjoy it. We’re keeping this month’s newsletter short and focused on the big news: if you haven’t heard, the government is officially shut down.

First, a quick market brief. October has been a strong month—the S&P is up roughly 3.5%, earnings per share have been revised higher by an average of 2% for S&P 500 companies, and all signs from recent earnings reports point to another solid quarter. Optimism around trade discussions, along with clearer tariff direction, has reignited bullish sentiment. Increased investment in AI and efficiency-related technologies has also helped push markets to all-time highs.

The Government Shutdown: Market Impact

Since October 1st, 2025, the U.S. government has been in a shutdown. What does that mean? Parts of the government deemed non-essential and unable to fund themselves are forced to cease operations. Some employees are furloughed, others are told not to work, and a few, like TSA agents, continue working without pay (though they’ll receive back pay once the government reopens).

As financial advisors, we try to stay focused on market impacts, but it’s hard not to point this out: it must be nice to disagree, fail to compromise, collect a paycheck, and let thousands of others go unpaid in the process. Our “essential” politicians keep working while many Americans are told they can’t. Both sides are digging in their heels, and the American worker is paying the price.

Not all shutdowns are the same. There are two types: one driven by a debt ceiling crisis, which is much worse for markets, the other; an appropriations shutdown, where non-essential services are paused until funding is agreed upon. For investors, this is the better of the two.

Since 1976, there have been 20 shutdowns due to lapsed funding, and 14 of those lasted less than three days. As of October 30th, this current shutdown is the second longest on record, closing in on the 35-day record set in 2018. The biggest economic concern is the delay in key data releases, such as inflation (CPI) and labor statistics that the Federal Reserve relies on when setting interest rates.

Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was deemed “necessary,” and the data came through after all. Inflation landed at 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target but lower than expected, while job growth remains mixed. With mixed data, and the government still shut down, the Fed surprisingly stayed on course and lowered interest rates by another 25 basis points: a move the market had already priced in following direction from the September meeting. This consistency likely helped maintain market confidence.

However, the decision was not without friction. Internal disagreements at the Fed resurfaced, with one member advocating for a larger cut and another pushing for no cut at all. This leaves December as another key decision point, as earlier guidance suggested two more cuts by year-end. Yet Fed Chair Powell remained characteristically vague about future moves; a style he is well known for.

For now, we do not expect the shutdown to significantly harm markets. Historically, markets often perform well during and after shutdowns, which has been the case so far. Still, the longer this one drags on, the more uneasy investors and workers alike may become.

We certainly feel for those caught in the crossfire of political dysfunction. Hopefully, both sides find compromise soon so the government can return to full operational capacity and Americans can get back to work.

September 2025 Financial Focus

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 17:53:06 GMT

September Kickoff

September markets usually perform like my second team, the Clemson Tigers have this year. Disappointing. This time around? It’s been more like the Buckeyes! Strong, steady, and surprisingly solid. Historically the toughest month for stocks, September has actually surprised to the upside.

In this issue of Financial Focus, we cover the Fed’s latest rate cut, a stronger-than-

expected market environment, and how MVFP is positioning portfolios for what’s

next. If you're a Bengals or Joe Burrow fan, we get it. September has had its lows.

Back to the numbers.

The Market Environment and our Adaptations

Let’s talk about the market environment and what our expectations as investors should be. We’re firm

believers that the heads and tails of the market—the upside and downside—are becoming more common. That’s not necessarily a negative. Remember, the right tail (or head) is a good thing. It’s about being ready for whichever side the coin lands.

Here’s what history has told us about the S&P 500. We can’t base future expectations solely on the past, but we can learn from it. Source: Aptus, Data as of 9/25/2025

History tells us that 20% or greater pullbacks happen about every 5.5 years. Since 2020, we’ve

experienced three of them: Feb–Mar 2020: -33.79% , Jan–Oct 2022: -24.02%, Feb–Apr 2025: -21.35%.

That’s not a coincidence. The pace of change is accelerating. Technology, and information, and data cycles are moving faster than ever. AI, might just be the acronym of the year. It’s transforming how markets behave, how companies operate, and how we invest.

Our strategy at MVFP? Structure portfolios that aren’t built for “average” conditions, but for real ones. That means more equities, fewer traditional bonds, and selective use of alternatives. We aim to stay risk- neutral while maximizing potential in both down markets (left tail) and strong rallies (right tail). Trying to time those moves is a losing game. Building for them... that’s our edge.

In practice, this means managing a portfolio that is overweight in stocks compared to bonds. In our

experience, holding more equities, while managing risk, can lead to portfolios that are not only less

volatile but recover more quickly and outperform traditional portfolio philosophies.

How are MVFP’s portfolios evolving, currently? We believe the U.S. is going to outperform its international

counterparts, so we’re increasing exposure to domestic equities by a few percentage points. U.S.

companies beat earnings by an average of 80% last quarter, compared to roughly 50% for international

firms.

We’re also embracing AI and the sectors that must grow to support it: energy and infrastructure. With large capital expenditures coming from major firms, we’re targeting a small portion of the portfolio toward energy infrastructure and AI-focused investments. As always, these are small tweaks—not sweeping changes. The goal is to optimize the short term without ever losing sight of the long-term plan. If you have questions about how this may impact your specific portfolio, please reach out!

“We Invest In The World We Have,

Not The World We Want"

Fed Jargon

As noted in last month’s newsletter, the Federal

Reserve’s September meeting carried weight and it

delivered. After months of speculation, the Fed voted

to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points. The decision was the first reduction of the year.

Why the cut? The labor market has softened slightly,

with unemployment edging up from 4.0% to around

4.3%. That’s still below historical averages, but

coupled with lagging economic data, it gave the Fed

just enough justification to act. Still, not everyone agreed. One member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented, pushing for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while others showed hesitation, preferring to wait for more clarity.

Here’s where it gets interesting. With Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair set to expire in May 2026, positioning inside the Fed may be about more than just policy. President Trump, currently in office, will have the authority to nominate the next Chair. That adds a political layer to the economic conversation. A more dovish (favors lower interest rates) public stance could be seen as a strategic move by some Fed members hoping to align with Trump’s preferences and potentially secure the top job.

Two more cuts are currently priced in for 2025 and that feels ambitious. Another two are priced in for 2026, but all of this remains data dependent. Only time and further economic clarity will give us a more accurate picture of what’s truly ahead.

Inflation, for now, is staying steady at around 3 percent, roughly one percent above the Fed’s stated target. This will continue to be watched closely. The Fed still faces the challenge of balancing cooling prices with full employment. It’s a delicate job, and one they are clearly approaching with caution.

Our Thoughts? The Fed has been engaged in restrictive economic policy since the rate hikes of 2022. This policy has contributed to slowing the growth of the U.S. economy. Working to get to a more friendly interest rate policy seems right. A modest cut, and a plan to get there over time is healthy.

Closing Remarks

We spend a lot of time talking about markets, portfolios, and financial plans, but we’d be remiss not to acknowledge something deeper: the health of our communities and the tone of our society.

While the United States and businesses continue to lead globally, it’s clear that our social strength isn’t keeping pace. From the recent tragic events, senseless violence, the loss of public figures, division over perspectives remind us that compassion, unity, and basic decency are not givens. We were also reminded that how we treat one another matters.

Leadership begins at the individual level. Whether on the global stage or in our own neighborhoods, the

opportunity to lead with empathy is always available.

Let’s choose to show up with kindness, and seek understanding over division. America’s greatest strength has always come from its people. We are different, determined, and at our best, united. Thank you for being part of the MVFP family.

August 2025 Financial Focus

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 17:30:16 GMT

Digesting Data From All Angles

Welcome to another edition of the Financial Focus from your advisors at MVFP. This month, we’re zeroing in on a few key developments that could shape the financial road for the remainder of the year. Covering second quarter earnings reports and what they reveal about corporate health; to the Macro Economic state of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s latest hints on monetary policy. Hope you enjoy, and if you have any questions about the topics discussed, please ask away!

Macro Economic Review

Ever since COVID-19, the Federal Reserve and it’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, have been center stage in nearly every financial conversation. For newer investors, here's a quick refresher: the Federal Reserve sets the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), which influences short-term interest rates, and controls the money supply in the economy. Its two primary objectives? Keep inflation low and unemployment low. Sounds easy, right? Not quite.

Picture a see-saw with inflation on one side and unemployment on the other. The Federal Reserve

shifts the balance point by raising or lowering interest rates; trying to keep the see-saw as level as possible. If they lean too far toward inflation by lowering rates, prices heat up while unemployment tends to fall. Tilt too far in the other direction by raising rates, and inflation cools off, but unemployment starts to rise. It’s a constant balancing act between two opposite reacting forces. The Fed makes these adjustments using incomplete data; always trying to keep the economy steady without tipping too far one way or the other.

At the start of the year, the consensus from many financial institutions called for three rate cuts in 2025. We thought that was optimistic. However, Powell recently spoke at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting, where investors listened closely for any signs of a shift. His comments were measured, but his acknowledgment that the FFR is "in restrictive territory" suggests a rate cut is on the table. That’s about as close as you’ll get to Powell openly saying a change is coming. Behind the scenes, two members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dissented at the last meeting in July. They opposed the decision to hold rates steady and rather opted for a 25 basis-point reduction. Historically, when two or more members of the Fed dissent, the next FOMC meeting almost always results in a policy shift.

The decision to cut rates or hold steady hinges on three key considerations. First, the labor market. Forecasts are beginning to show signs of weakness, with rising concerns about unemployment. This supports a case for a rate cut. Second, the tariff landscape. While Trump-era tariffs haven’t yet caused a clear rise in inflation, the Fed is watching closely. We can’t forget about the lag! That’s a mark against cutting rates. Third, companies and earnings remain strong-Q2 was healthy. However, broader GDP projections have been revised downward, which adds some uncertainty. This puts the Fed in a juxtaposition, and could push the case either for or against a cut.

The challenge is that the Fed makes these decisions based on lagging data, while trying to address future problems. It’s like steering a car based on where the road was ten seconds ago. That makes every move a calculated risk.

Right now, a 25 basis point cut is priced in by about 80% of analysts on “the Street” heading into the Fed’s September meeting. If the data continues trending in the right direction, that cut could be the next step in Powell’s soft-landing strategy.

“We Invest In The World We Have,

Not The World We Want"

Q2 Earnings Review

If there’s one word that sums it up, it’s dispersion.

This quarter didn’t reward the middle ground. Companies either beat expectations and got a pat on

the back, or missed and paid dearly. The gap between

winners and losers is as wide as we’ve seen in years.

Let’s look at the scoreboard. More than 80% of S&P

500 companies exceeded estimates. Those who beat

estimates traded in line with historical trends. The

market reaction was harsh for those that missed the

mark. They dropped over 6% on average the following day, nearly three times the typical decline. It’s a clear

reminder that in today’s market, expectations don’t just matter, they drive the narrative.

Still, despite that tougher grading scale, Q2 came in stronger than anticipated. Earnings growth doubled early forecasts, and revenue growth surpassed what we’ve seen over the past four quarters. Consumer spending remained solid, corporate investment stayed strong, and even with tariffs looming, companies demonstrated impressive resilience.

That said, the nuance matters. The Magnificent Seven continue to carry much of the load. Their EPS

grew by 26% this quarter, while the rest were underwhelming . The long-awaited “broadening out” of performance beyond mega-cap names is still the story, just one that keeps getting delayed.

In the end, Q2 didn’t just clear a low bar, it leapt over it.

With the speed of information amplifying both good and bad news, stocks/markets are reacting more sharply than ever. This is seemingly the new normal. We believe a portfolio built not just for growth, but for resilience, is imperative. One that holds up in down markets and does not cap long-term returns will be the key to successful long-term investing.

Closing Remarks

As we look back at August and ahead toward the final stretch of the year, it feels good to be where we are. April’s turbulence seems like a distant memory now, and speaking for myself, it finally feels like we’ve shaken off that uneasy stretch in the markets. It’s a strange feeling being less than 2 percent off all-time highs, but strange in the best way.

Q2 returns came in strong, and most projections followed suit. When it comes down to it, the markets respond to one thing: profits and growth. As long as the economy continues to deliver on both fronts, we believe we’re on the right track.

As for the Fed’s next move, our office saying has been pretty consistent. Rates right now are slightly above long-term averages, and yes, they are restrictive to economic growth. But the good news is that we’re working with a healthy economy. It is normal for the Fed to raise or lower rates by 25 to 50 basis points throughout the year. A reduction at this point seems warranted. What was not normal was a 5 percent hike in less than 18 months and 9 percent inflation. That was the real disruption.

All that to say, we’re in a much better spot now, and the road ahead looks far more manageable. As always, we’re here to guide you through it. Happy Labor Day.

July 2025 Financial Focus

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 17:10:00 GMT

July Recap

Welcome to July’s edition of the Financial Focus from your MVFP team! We hope your summer has been great. The 4th of July has come and gone, and it’s hard to believe we’re already closing in on August. Luke Bryan may have said it best: “Days go slow and years go fast.” Lets not waste anymore time before it’s 2026! We have a tax bill, Q2, and some 401(k) advice to discuss.

Breaking Down the Tax Bill

As of July 30th, the S&P 500 is up 2.62% for the month and 8.62% year-to-date; a continuation of the summer momentum. We noted in June that fundamentals were making a comeback. July just confirmed it. Nothing stirred more conversation than the release of the “Big Beautiful Bill.” We're here to recap the policy’s economic impact because it affects individuals, investors, and the businesses we all depend on.

First, the good news. Tax brackets from 2017 are staying put. Without this bill, we would’ve seen across-the-board increases in 2026. That means today’s 22% rate doesn’t revert back to 25%, and

similar relief extends up the ladder. This keeps more money where it belongs- our hands. There’s also a bigger incentive to itemize thanks to an expanded SALT deduction cap, a potential plus for high earners in high-tax states.

Qualified Opportunity Zones (QOZs) are now permanent. That opens the door for tax-advantaged investments in distressed communities. This is a win-win for private capital and public revitalization. New rules allow businesses to depreciate R&D expenses more aggressively and explore creative compensation strategies. This effectively lowers their tax burdens in the short term, while also incentivizing R&D projects.

So, what does all this mean for us? Individuals won’t see tax hikes. Many will benefit from short-term deductions tied to overtime and tips deductions (at least until 2028). Businesses, could see fatter profit margins if they use these provisions wisely (which they will). This will allow them to lower their bottom (tax) line and increase profits. Most of these rules expire in 2028-2030, but the added relief may subdue tariff pressure. This is good for investors and consumers.

The tradeoff? A projected $4 trillion addition to the national deficit by 2035. This is not good, but slightly better than the $4.1 trillion trajectory we were already on. For now, the bill doesn’t solve our much needed deficit dilemma; it simply kicks the can down the road for someone else to solve. Not surprising.

Outside of the tax bill, the U.S. has finalized trade agreements with the EU, Japan, South Africa, and several others. These deals are keeping trade relationships strong, breaking down barriers for U.S. exports, and securing both foreign investment and firm trade quotas. In short— good news for American companies and even better news for those who invest in them.

“We Invest In The World We Have,

Not The World We Want"

401k VS IRA

Onto something a bit more exciting. You’ve landed a new job or a long-awaited promotion (congratulations!) and with that career move comes a financial decision you may not have thought about: What should you do with your old 401(k) or employer-sponsored retirement plan?

Let’s lay out your four main options when it comes to retirement assets like a 401(k), 403(b), SIMPLE IRA, or Roth 401(k):

1. Cash It Out – Please don’t. Taxes + a 10% penalty before age 591⁄2 = the worst choice.

2. Leave It in the Old Plan – You can keep your investments where they are, if allowed.

3. Move It to Your New Employer’s Plan – If the new plan accepts roll-ins, it can simplify things.

4. Roll It Into an IRA – Full control, broader investment options, and greater flexibility.

Option 1 is a non-starter if you're planning for retirement with, well, retirement assets. The real debate lies between leaving the funds in a plan versus rolling to an IRA.

While employer plans often offer solid choices, they’re curated to fit a broad audience. That means limited investment menus and decisions shaped by plan sponsors, not necessarily your personal goals.

With an IRA, you’re not stuck with a predefined menu. You get the full buffet. Mutual funds, ETFs, individual stocks, and bonds, all within reach. More importantly, you’re not investing based on what’s “suitable” for a group. You’re investing based on what’s best for you. That’s where the real planning happens.

Rolling over isn’t always the right call—but when it is, it’s because flexibility, control, and customization win the day. If you have a 401(k) that is sitting in an old plan, or know someone that has changed jobs recently, we’re happy to set up a time to discuss what’s best for you/them.

Closing Remarks

The U.S. economy has held steady so far this year, despite policy shifts and tariffs.

What businesses have shown is resilience. Large investments stalled while the rules were unclear. With the new tax bill and clearer tariff guidance, the playbook is better defined. Companies can now plan, hire, and invest with

more confidence. With fewer unknowns and less policy drag on margins, the second half of the year looks better positioned.

Change always brings questions, we just have more answers now.

June 2025 Financial Focus

Sun, 01 Jun 2025 16:15:35 GMT

Data, Decisions, and the Long View

Happy June. Summer came in hot, literally. As we hit the halfway point of 2025, it’s a good time to take stock. This month, we’re recapping the market’s shift from volatility to stability, breaking down how Social Security really works, and reminding ourselves why patience still pays. Before you head into the long weekend, we hope this quick update brings some clarity and confidence to your summer outlook.

Q1 and Q2, What the Data is Telling Us

As we close in on the halfway mark of 2025, markets seem to have found their footing. Q1 set the tone for a rocky year. Whispers of a U.S. recession grew louder, but as Q2 rolled in, there seemed to be light at the end of the tunnel. Not only did markets recover, but they also began showing signs of trading on fundamentals again, not just fear-driven headlines.

Take the Iran–Israel conflict. Historically, news like that might have triggered a broad sell-off. This time? The market barely blinked. Investors shrugged off the noise and focused instead on the underlying data, a strong signal that sentiment is shifting back toward rationality.

So, what are the fundamentals telling us? At the end of Q1, GDP growth was reported at -0.1%, technically recessionary. However, the number is misleading. A big driver? Imports. With new tariffs looming, companies frontloaded orders, building inventories and dragging down the GDP calculation. Why does that matter? Because GDP is calculated using a formula that subtracts imports from the total. That last part is key. When imports rise, they reduce the GDP number, even if economic activity remains strong. So, when companies rushed to bring in goods ahead of tariff deadlines, the economy appeared weaker on paper than it actually was. That’s why understanding the “why” behind the data matters just as much as the headline itself. Now, in Q2, imports have slowed, and GDP is projected at +3.8%. Neither quarter tells the full story on its own. Q1 wasn’t a contracting U.S. economy. Q2 isn’t some astronomical boom. Together, they point to a stable economy averaging around 2% growth; right where we want to be!

Inflation has also stayed in check. While tariffs are inflationary in theory, in practice, their impact has been muted so far. The U.S. economy is massive and complex-too complex for one policy shift to break the system. It’s a reminder that real data beats speculation every time.

At a more granular level, 78% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates in Q1, with 14% year-over-year growth, nearly double the 8% that was expected. That strength was driven by solid revenues and steady capital spending, especially in tech. The “Magnificent 7” stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and friends) now make up more than 31% of the S&P 500. That kind of concentration deserves a watchful eye, but it’s also been a driving force behind much of the recovery. Yes, Q2 earnings projections are being revised slightly downward, largely due to tariff uncertainty, but even with those adjustments, 2025 earnings are expected to grow nearly 10% over last year. If that holds, it would fall squarely in line with long-term averages; hardly the stuff of recessions.

All of this leads us to a simple conclusion: the volatility we saw early in the year may have been more

about nerves than numbers. The fundamentals? They’re telling a steadier, more optimistic story. As long-

term investors, that’s exactly what we need to hear!

“It is never beneficial to

focus on short-term outcomes when investing for the long run"

Social Security

In its simplest form, Social Security is the retirement

paycheck you earn over decades of work. You pay in through payroll taxes, and eventually, when the time

comes, Uncle Sam starts sending some of it back to

you.

Now, we’ll put aside the long-term funding debate.

Yes, there are issues, but for anyone in their early 30s

or younger, it’s worth acknowledging that Social

Security may not be a guarantee in the future. That

said, for those approaching retirement, it’s still a

central piece of the puzzle, and deciding when to take

it can make a meaningful difference.

You can start collecting benefits as early as age 62, but that comes with a catch. Your monthly check will be permanently reduced. Wait until your Full Retirement Age (FRA), currently 67 for most people, and you’ll get the full benefit. Hold off until age 70, and your check increases by about 8 percent for every year you delay past FRA

So which option is best? It depends on your goals, health, income needs, and work plans. If you start before FRA and earn more than $22,320, you’ll lose one dollar in benefits for every two dollars earned. In the year you reach FRA, that limit rises to $59,520, and the penalty drops to one dollar for every three dollars over the limit. After FRA, there’s no income penalty at all. You can earn as much as you want.

Here’s where break-even points come in. If you take Social Security at 62 instead of 67, the break-even age

is around 79, meaning if you live beyond that, delaying would have paid off. Waiting from 67 to 70 pushes the

break-even to about age 83. These benchmarks help guide the math, but personal health, longevity expectations, and lifestyle needs should drive the final decision.

Closing Remarks

As we move into the heart of summer, it's a good time to remember that financial planning, like the

seasons, works best with a little rhythm and patience. The first half of the year gave us plenty of movement, but the fundamentals remain strong, and so does your plan.

Looking ahead, the revised tax bill seems to be trending toward cuts aimed at growth, and a rate cut from the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly likely. Both would be welcome news for the markets and for long-term investors like you.

Whether you’re traveling, grilling, or simply enjoying a slower pace, we hope this season brings moments of rest and celebration.

From all of us at MVFP, have a safe and joyful Fourth of July. Here's to freedom, fresh perspective, and the second half of 2025. Cheers.

May 2025 Financial Focus

Thu, 01 May 2025 20:20:52 GMT

May Market Update

Welcome to May! It’s the season of graduation celebrations, wedding weekends, and (hopefully) a few well-earned getaways. This month, we’re diving into market moves, and a planning tip you can act on now. Let’s get into it.

Mid-Year Momentum

Let’s start with something important: the date. As of May 23rd, 2025, the market landscape looks a lot different than it did just a few weeks ago. We say that because each newsletter is written, reviewed, and approved with a slight lag—and when markets move as quickly as they have this month, context matters.

The first half of May brought a stretch of road that finally felt smooth. Markets rebounded in a way that surprised even seasoned investors. Short-term bounces went our way, patience paid off, and strategies many had questioned began to show their strength. After a long string of bumpy days and persistent negative headlines, it felt good—really good—to see the long-term approach working in real time. The S&P, for example, started the year at 5,886, dipped as low as 4,982, and as of now, has rallied back to around even. That’s an 18% round

trip. Flat may not sound like much, but given the ride we’ve been on, it’s a major win.

What’s behind the rebound? The encouraging signs from trade negotiations between the U.S., China, and the UK. This suggests a more cooperative tone is emerging. From the U.S. perspective, better access to global markets is on the table. From abroad, it’s reduced tariffs and clearer policy paths. Like kids learning the art of compromise (something many parents will be navigating this summer), nations are realizing cooperation beats confrontation. And markets are responding in kind.

But just as we started coasting, the terrain shifted. With the EU now entering the negotiation spotlight,

we’re seeing the road get rocky again. They’re posturing hard, and that could spook investors. Still, if the pattern holds, the tension will ease, deals will get done, and this too will smooth out. We’ve seen this movie before, and it rarely ends in gridlock.

The bigger point is this: volatility isn't going away. It’s part of the journey. But your plan isn’t built for perfect conditions, it’s built to drive through them. And so far this year, our strategies are doing just that: staying resilient, capturing gains, and not veering off course. When the road’s smooth, we gain ground. When it’s gravel, we stay steady. Either way, we’re moving forward.

That brings us to another question we’ve been hearing more frequently. With international markets outperforming the U.S. so far this year, is it time to shift more portfolio weight overseas? Here’s where we landed. While there’s value in global exposure, we’re still comfortable maintaining a slight underweight to international markets. First, international indices tend to be more top-heavy than the U.S.. A small number of companies often dominate the returns, making the performance feel more diversified than it actually is. That kind of concentration increases risk. Second, the long-term growth outlook for U.S. companies continues to shine. Even with elevated valuations, the pipeline for innovation, earnings potential, and global competitiveness still favors domestic equities. The U.S. remains the engine of scalable growth. Tilting too far away from the U.S. at this stage doesn’t align with the evidence.

“It is never beneficial to focus on short-term outcomes when investing for the long run.”

Graduating with a Plan

School’s out, but smart financial planning for education is always in session. One of the most powerful tools in that toolbox? The 529 Plan. It’s like a

backpack packed with flexibility, tax perks, and future

potential for generations to come. At its core, a 529 is a tax-advantaged investment account. Contributions are made with after-tax dollars, but when used for qualified education expenses withdrawals are completely tax-free. Things like tuition, books, laptops, and even off-campus housing all qualify. That means potential savings of up to 23.8% in taxes. Not bad for something you can set up in an afternoon.

Recent rule changes have elevated the 529 account into a more nimble investment option.

First, many states offer tax deductions or credits just for contributing. So, before the account even grows, you may already be saving.

Second, under the new federal rules, up to $35,000 of unused funds can now be rolled into a ROTH IRA for the beneficiary, assuming the 529 has been open for at least 15 years. So if your child decides college isn’t their path, the money isn’t wasted, rather it’s a head start on retirement.

Third, these plans are remarkably flexible. You stay in control (unlike with a UGMA or UTMA), and the funds can be transferred to a sibling, cousin, or even future grandchild without penalty. It’s planning power that spans generations. Here’s the best part: anyone can contribute. Grandparents, aunts, uncles, you name it. Whether it’s

a gift for the future or a smart way to reduce taxable income today, the 529 plan remains one of the best tools for building a bright educational (or retirement) future.

Closing Remarks

If you’re in the Dayton area, you probably heard about the Kettering Medical Center data breach- a ransomware attack that crippled operations and exposed massive amounts of data. Here’s the takeaway: Digital threats are real, and financial protection matters more than ever. A few steps I took, and recommend for better online safety:

1. Freeze Your Credit – Takes 15–20 minutes, and can block fraudsters from opening accounts in

your name.

2. Use a Password Manager – Your best passwords are the ones you don’t know. Pair it with two-factor authentication if you are able.

3. Avoid Suspicious Links – One bad click can start a chain reaction. Stay alert, even on personal email.

Tech is a tool, but bad actors are getting bolder. A few proactive moves today can make life a whole lot easier tomorrow.

On a happy note check, out MVFP.net. We have completely transformed our website. If you need to remember a login or want to reread your favorite financial newsletter, you can access it all on our new page! We would love your feedback and for you to share this with others. Cheers.

April 2025 Financial Focus

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 20:20:53 GMT

Perspective: Playing the Long Game

Last month, we might’ve been a little early on the spring celebration—but I think we can now officially welcome the season. Hopefully your basement stayed dry with all the rain, because this April has felt wetter than any I can remember. Speaking of feeling things... this month kicked off with some noticeable market ups and downs. Ready for a real-world comparison? The market has felt a lot like Rory McIlroy at The Masters. (Sorry, we’re a golf office—bear with me.) Emotions running high, momentum swings, one bad shot followed by something flawless. The only difference? We’ve seen the end of the Masters—congrats on the Grand Slam, Rory!—but we’re still in the thick of the financial tournament. If you tuned in to Augusta, it was hard not to get emotional. That’s why this month’s theme is simple but important: Perspective. Let’s talk Tariffs, keep a long-term view, and bridge some common financial gaps—especially for couples navigating money together.

Tariffs: Blocking out the Noise

Information travels fast. Technology, social media, and the 24/7 news cycle have evolved so quickly that it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. Lately, it seems like everyone’s become a self-proclaimed tariff and trade policy expert. But when the noise gets loud, it’s more important than ever to stay grounded. Focus on what’s actually happening, not what might happen based on speculation. Here are the facts:

U.S. Tariff Timeline (2025):

March 4: 25% tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico. April 5: A 10% universal tariff on all imports began. April 9: Tariffs on China surged to over 125%. A 90-day pause was issued on tariffs between 11%–50%, affecting 60 countries. There are a lot of moving parts, and plenty of room for policy pivots.

Tariffs, Simply Put:

10% universal tariff on all imports. 145% on Chinese goods. 25% Mexico. 10% Canadian energy. 25% on autos, parts, steel, and aluminum. Exemptions: semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, copper, critical minerals, and lumber.

Resilience in the Face of Change:

At the end of the day, businesses just want to know the rules of the game. We believe most of those rules have now been set. The latest pivot places China directly in the crosshairs for the next 90 days, while the U.S. begins renegotiations with the rest of the world. Following this news, the markets rallied nearly 10% across the board. When we zoom out and consider the broader picture, here’s what matters:

The U.S. is actually less dependent on global trade than most major economies. Only about 14% of U.S. GDP comes from imports and exports. The remaining 86% is domestic , giving us a level of insulation that many other countries don’t enjoy. And we haven’t even hit Tax Cut Corner yet (another Masters reference—sorry!). There’s still plenty of runway left for policy support later this year, whether through deregulation, tax cuts, or targeted relief aimed at keeping the economy strong. Perspective is everything, especially in volatile times. Our investment timeline stretches far beyond a single quarter or year. Patience pays. The U.S. economy is built on resilient businesses and they are in a good place. It always adapts: The Great Depression, World War II, 2008. Perspective.

“It is never beneficial to focus on short-term outcomes when investing for the long run.”

Financial Conversations

That Build Confidence

Let’s be honest — money talk probably isn't topping anyone’s list of fun date night topics. But whether you’re newlyweds, empty nesters, or somewhere in between, making time to talk about money as a couple can be one of the best ways to stay aligned and reduce stre ss.

We’re not saying you need to bring spreadsheets to the dinner table. What matters is having open, honest conversations that lead to better decisions, shared goals, and fewer “wait, you spent how much on golf clubs?” moments.

Start with How You Handle Money

There’s no one-size-fits-all approach to household finances. Joint accounts, separate accounts, or a mix of both what matters is understanding each other’s tendencies. Are you a saver, a spender, or a go-with-the-flow type?

Having a budget and clarity on how money flows in and out helps avoid miscommunication and gives you a shared game plan.

What Are You Working Toward Together?

Every couple has a dream. Maybe it’s retiring early, taking that bucket list trip, or just replacing that old recliner that’s eaten more remotes than your dog. Whatever it is, defining your shared goals turns vague ideas into real targets. With real targets comes better planning and a lot less guessing.

Invest Like Teammates

You don’t have to be a financial expert — but having a long-term plan pays off. Consistent investing, even in small amounts, creates flexibility down the road. Think Roth IRAs, 401(k) matches, brokerage accounts. These are the financial options. that will set you up for future freedom, not future stress.

These conversations don’t need to be stiff, stressful, or saved for “someday.” They can bring you closer and make financial decisions feel a lot more intentional. And yes, even a little fun! If you or someone you care about could use guidance in this area, we’re here to help. No pressure — just good conversations and a plan that fits.

Closing Remarks

Spring is the time for chilly mornings and shedding layers throughout the day as we ease into the warmth. Perspective reminds us that the cold is temporary and change is on the way, just like the markets.

While there’s no shortage of noise and day-to-day movement, these fluctuations are part of the natural rhythm. Focusing on the bigger picture helps us recognize short-term discomforts without losing sight of long-term goals.

Whether you're navigating changing economic headlines or planning for your future with a spouse or partner, clarity and open conversation are key. Share your thoughts. Ask the tough questions. Revisit your goals together.

The sun is out, even if it takes a little while each morning to feel it. Keep showing up, keep planning ahead, keep the conversation going.

March 2025 Financial Focus

Sat, 01 Mar 2025 21:21:31 GMT

Closing March: Steady Now, Strong Tomorrow

Welcome to March! Spring is in full swing at our home office—or so we hope. I keep reminding myself we’re still in Ohio, where the weather likes to keep us guessing. The clocks have sprung forward, the days are stretching longer, and if you dared to fill out a March Madness bracket this year, I’d bet it’s just like ours at MVFP- busted. It’s been an eventful month, to say the least. In this Financial Focus, we’ll recap what's unfolded- from recent market volatility, to our website refresh, and how smart planning now, gears us for whatever is thrown our way in the future. It’s all about staying steady today to build strength for tomorrow

Markets Fluctuate, Strategy Endures

The S&P 500 just dropped 10% in 20 calendar days; the fifth fastest correction in 75 years, though still shy of the record eight-day plunge at COVID’s onset on February 27, 2020. History shows the market averages three 5%+ pullbacks annually. These dips are normal, and even healthy not a cause

for alarm. Data backs this up; despite these jolts, year-end returns often stay positive, despite short term volatility. Patience pays off; reacting does not. Volatility isn’t a threat; it’s an opportunity.

Why does this matter? I was reminded recently of a simple truth: I don’t fiddle with my thermostat every hour; I set it and let it work. The stock market is the same. It’s a tool, not a tyrant. A legendary investor once said, “Ignore the stock market; it doesn’t even exist.” These are wise words urging us to tune out the noise and trust the strategy that we have built together. Your goals deserve focus, not fleeting headlines.

That said, as your advisors, we do not, and will not bury our heads in the sand. Ignoring the market entirely is not our job; managing it is. The straight-up climb we’ve seen since 2022? That was the outlier, not this pullback. Recent shifts in the U.S. have stirred volatility, and we expect more ups and downs ahead, but these are normal market waves. Our plans, tailored to each of you, are built for this: diversified, risk-adjusted, and poised to rebound. Last month, we stressed sticking to the plan, today we are living it. Making smart, short-term adjustments, while keeping your long-term goals in sight. No wild swings needed; our approach has us in a stronger spot than ever. Trust the process—it’s working, and it will carry us forward.

At a portfolio level, we just went through an in depth analysis of our equity positions. The conclusion? Our portfolios equity holdings are right in line with where we want them to be. However, in the fixed income sector of the portfolios, we did make small change by adding a new fund. The goal? To add diversification and decrease correlation away from the equities market. In the process we were also able to increase yield in the allocation.

“We invest in the world that we have...not the one we want”

Every Dollar’s Purpose: The Bucket Approach

Saving is a solid start, but without direction, it’s like packing for a trip with no destination. That is where a structured plan comes in—specifically, our “bucket approach.” The idea? Give every dollar a job by dividing your savings into three buckets

Bucket 1: Traditional Retirement Accounts (401(k) , IRA): Pre-tax contributions lower your taxable income now; withdrawals are taxed in retirement. This is great for long-term growth, but locked until 59½.

Bucket 2: Roth Retirement Accounts (Roth IRA, Roth 401(k)): After-tax contributions today mean tax-free withdrawals later. The same age rules apply, but the tax perk is a game-changer.

Bucket 3: Taxable Investment Accounts (Brokerage/After Tax): After-tax money with no limits or withdrawal restrictions. Think of it as your “life happens” fund—flexible and ready when you need it.

Why It Works: Utilizing all three buckets gives you balance—liquidity for emergencies (a new furnace), tax efficiency in retirement, and control over your tax bracket.

Scenario: Imagine saving at a 20% tax rate throughout your working life. Then in retirement, withdrawing strategically at just 12% due to having three buckets of money to utilize- a flexible plan. A portion would come from Traditional IRA’s- where you pay income taxes, some from ROTH IRAs - where you pay no taxes and some from your after tax account-where you pay capital gains. The outcome? A lower overall tax bill. That's the game, and over time, putting more money in your pocket, not Uncle Sam’s. It’s not just saving, it’s saving smart.

Firm Updates

We are always striving to enhance how we work with you, especially as the world shifts more online. Forget remembering to bookmark every sign-on you use, soon, you will visit our site and find a simple directory, where every log-in we work with is just a click away. This is about making your life easier, and letting more people discover the value we bring. Stay tuned—this refresh should be live by next month’s newsletter!

Closing Remarks- We hope you are enjoying the newsletters and finding value in them. As weare just starting out, we are committed to making them better over time. Your feedback is important! If there’s anything you’d like to see, please do not hesitate to let us know. In our view, the US economy remains robust. With profits and growth as key drivers, We are optimistic about the markets moving forward.

February 2025 Financial Focus

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 21:04:26 GMT

Introducing the Monthly Financial
Focus with MVFP

Welcome to the Miami Valley Financial Partners Financial Focus—a new way for us, the advisors at MVFP, to share information that we believe is important to you, our clients. Our role as your advisors is to understand your needs and aspirations and help develop the most efficient financial plan to achieve those goals. We are committed to guiding you every step of the way. In today’s fast-paced world, where there is no shortage of information, not all sources are created equal—some

are reliable, while others can be misleading. That’s why we created Financial Focus.

Our goal is to provide you with valuable, relevant, and trustworthy information that we believe can help you make more informed financial decisions. We aim to bridge the gap between our meetings throughout the year, and offer insights that enhance your understanding of your financial situation. At the very least we hope you will enjoy reading this. This month’s edition is all about laying the foundation for the months to come. Since this is our first issue, we’re starting from the top by

explaining what makes MVFP... well, MVFP!

United Advisor Group (UAG) - Independence

UAG is our Registered Investment Advisory (RIA) firm—think Raymond James, but don’t dwell on that

comparison for too long because UAG is different. The name United Advisor Group is VERY important. UAG is

an RIA built and operated by its own advisors (Brian).

Why is this important? From Brian’s strongly held (and correct) opinion, the RIA world gives us access to a broader range of products and investments that simply aren’t available within a “Corporate” RIA. It’s like taking off the training wheels, allowing us to design investment portfolios with greater freedom. To put it in perspective, imagine a chef working at a fast-food chain, restricted to using pre-packaged ingredients and standard-issue fryers (cookie-cutter portfolios). Now, picture that same chef running their own restaurant, free to source the freshest ingredients and use specialty tools like a wood-fired oven or a high-end chef’s knife (tailored portfolios and customized financial planning). That’s the difference: the freedom to craft the perfect dish—or in our case, the perfect financial strategy—using the best resources available, in the most efficient and personalized way.

How does UAG Benefit You? Unlike corporations that prioritize profit, UAG prioritizes the client. We’re not tied to specific products, sales quotas, or bound by a single contract with any custodian. Instead, we work with multiple firms—like SEI, Charles Schwab, and others—allowing us to negotiate better rates and drive down costs for both us and you. Our independence extends to every facet of our practice, enabling us to choose the most efficient tools available. This freedom allows us to use only what’s necessary to deliver the best performance while keeping fees and expenses to a minimum.

“We invest in the world that we have...not the one we want”

Investment Philosophy

At face value, our job as advisors is managing a portfolio of investments. However, it goes much deeper than just that. A word I find myself coming back to often is efficiency.

How do we achieve this? Honestly, nothing in life— or in any business—is ever 100% efficient, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t strive for it. Here at MVFP , efficiency is always the goal when it comes to wealth and money management. Our philosophy is rooted in minimizing deficiencies and maximizing effectiveness in every financial plan we create.

Our Approach? Tax-Efficient Saving: Developing plans that allow us to save in the most efficient tax environments for our clients. Specific Investment Accounts and Strategies: We understand and utilize various investment accounts to meet each client’s unique goals. Every plan is tailored because every client’s goals are different! We utilize a variety of investment accounts, including Traditional and Roth IRAs for retirement savings, brokerage accounts for flexibility and growth, and specialized accounts like Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and 529 plans, depending on your needs. Disciplined Investment Philosophy: We believe in long-term investing and removing the emotion from the process. We listen to the markets and the data, adjusting our models in the short term to be best prepared for what’s to come— without losing sight of long-term goals.

That’s the MVFP way, and we’re committed to partnering with you on your financial journey! Future editions will dive deeper into specific topics, but for this first edition, we wanted to lay the foundation. Our goal is to provide valuable, relevant, and trustworthy information to help you make informed financial decisions

Our Team & Vision

Brian Yeakley – President & Senior Partner

Cole McGuire – Junior Partner

Cameron Willis – Advisor in Training

Lisa Patzer – Administrative Assistant

Writing about ourselves is always the hardest part— especially when its about the team we’re building. I can confidently speak for all of us when I say we’re truly committed to creating something special in the financial industry. Our goal isn’t just to be financial advisors; we strive to be a trusted partner—someone you want to reach out to for important questions and guidance. We want to collaborate with you, understand your financial goals, create an environment where you feel comfortable having meaningful conversations about your finances. As our office continues to grow, we’re focused on building something at MVFP that will last far beyond ourselves. We envision MVFP as a collective group, not just an office of independent advisors. We check our pride at the door because, at the end of the day, it’s about the success and wealth of our clients. When you succeed, we succeed, and everything else follows.

miami-valley-financial-partners

October 2025 Financial Focus

October: A not so Spooky Market

The Government Shutdown: Market Impact

September 2025 Financial Focus

September Kickoff

The Market Environment and our Adaptations

“We Invest In The World We Have,

Not The World We Want"

Fed Jargon

Closing Remarks

August 2025 Financial Focus

Digesting Data From All Angles

Macro Economic Review

“We Invest In The World We Have,

Not The World We Want"

Q2 Earnings Review

Closing Remarks

July 2025 Financial Focus

July Recap

Breaking Down the Tax Bill

“We Invest In The World We Have,

Not The World We Want"

401k VS IRA

Closing Remarks

June 2025 Financial Focus

Data, Decisions, and the Long View

Q1 and Q2, What the Data is Telling Us

“It is never beneficial to

focus on short-term outcomes when investing for the long run"

Social Security

Closing Remarks

May 2025 Financial Focus

May Market Update

Mid-Year Momentum

“It is never beneficial to focus on short-term outcomes when investing for the long run.”

Graduating with a Plan

Closing Remarks

April 2025 Financial Focus

Perspective: Playing the Long Game

Tariffs: Blocking out the Noise

“It is never beneficial to focus on short-term outcomes when investing for the long run.”

Financial Conversations

That Build Confidence

Closing Remarks

March 2025 Financial Focus

Closing March: Steady Now, Strong Tomorrow

Markets Fluctuate, Strategy Endures

“We invest in the world that we have...not the one we want”

Every Dollar’s Purpose: The Bucket Approach

Firm Updates

February 2025 Financial Focus

Introducing the Monthly Financial Focus with MVFP

United Advisor Group (UAG) - Independence

“We invest in the world that we have...not the one we want”

Investment Philosophy

Our Team & Vision

Introducing the Monthly Financial
Focus with MVFP